No random walk?


“It was mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot who first discovered in 1962, by crunching 100 years of cotton trading data, that markets have “fat tails” or more extreme risks than the standard models predict. A less oft cited finding of Mandelbrot’s was that markets have memory, in colloquial terms. Calm days tend to be followed by calm days, volatile ones by volatile ones. That again is not the pattern predicted by standard theories, which hold that day to day changes are random.”


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